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📡 Bitcoin, Backtests, Macaroni, & Moral Revolutions
What the News Didn’t Tell You This Week
Hola Libertinus,
While most people were busy grilling hot dogs and pretending we’re still the freest country on Earth…
West was busy connecting the dots between billionaire scapegoating, Bitcoin’s slow coronation, Euro-skepticism around air conditioning, and the economics of mercenaries in Renaissance Italy.
Because of course he was.
Meanwhile, Zack took a different route—back to 1776, ancient Greece, and the radical idea that launched a revolution:
You own yourself.
From Diogenes to data integrity... let’s get weird.
📡 S I G N A L S
Eat the Rich
“The rich don’t pay their fair share”
Yes they do:
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84)
3:03 PM • Jun 24, 2025
Economic populism is the political flavor of the day with both sides of the aisle seeming to think that bad things should happen to billionaires. The problem with this thinking is that if the top 1% of American society chose to remove themselves from it, our nation would collapse. Far from "not paying their fair share," the rich pay a hugely disproportionate amount taxes collected by the government. The alienation of the wealthy from US society is one of the issues I'm most concerned about right now (alongside declining independence of the Federal Reserve). No voters seem to want to hear this though (they seem to only be interested in getting more free stuff), which means that our democracy may be primed to eat itself. ~West
Bessent on Bitcoin
🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "Bitcoin is becoming a store of value."
— Bitcoin Junkie (@BitcoinJunkiez)
2:31 PM • Jul 10, 2025
Back in April, Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent (one of the voices of reason in the current Presidential admin), claimed that Bitcoin is becoming a store of value, listing it alongside gold. For many years now, I haven't seen the evidence of this, but that's starting to change. I've been seeing some interesting de-correlation between stocks and Bitcoin in recent months, and we've seen a lot of price stabilization compared to past years. I'm not willing to call it a store of value yet, but I am now willing to say that it is likely to become one in the not too distant future. It is expected that Bitcoin will become more stable as it increases in market cap, but I don't have any thoughts on an exact price point at which Bitcoin stability would meet the "smell test" for a store of value. I personally hold a large Bitcoin position relative to my net worth, but still keep it as part of my active portfolio and consider it a speculative play. ~West
Hot Europeans Need Your Help Today
You are 8.5X more likely to die in Europe due to their lack of air conditioning than you are to be killed in the United States by someone with a gun.
Just let that settle in your brain for a moment.
— Feni𝕏 Ammunition (@FenixAmmunition)
1:25 PM • Jul 2, 2025
I'm not offended by much, but having a random European around insisting the air conditioning be turned off or else "we'll all turn ill" really gets me going (true story). There's no scientific basis for this claim, and in fact the opposite is true. So opposite in fact that a lack of proper air conditioning in Europe has led to more deaths than firearms in the US have caused. Here's an article that goes more in-depth on this too-little-discussed topic. Also, I'm starting a charity to provide air conditioning to undeserved Europeans who'll invariably complain about it the whole time if you'd like to donate. ~West
Condottieri (Wikipedia)
Condottieri refers to mercenaries operating on the Italian peninsula during the 13th to 17th centuries. What does this have to do with anything? One of my primary focuses for several years now is the relationship between economy and security, and mercenaries serve an interesting role in this relationship. Affluent Italian city states in the Renaissance employed them to solve security problems in exchange for capital the city states were so talented in generating. I've been digging into the history of the Condottieri to better understand historical roles that mercenaries played to better understand what works and what doesn't. A side benefit of this endeavor is that many of these individuals have fascinating stories. One such colorful individual is founder of the Great Company, Werner von Urslingen, who allegedly had his personal motto engraved on his breastplate: "Enemy of God, Enemy of Piety, Enemy of Pity." ~West
Can we even backtest?
I came across this video recently and it does a great job of highlighting the systematic issues with all backtesting: data quality. These data quality issues may be leading us to draw improper conclusions when it comes to performance expectations and asset allocation. What's the solution? Realize that your portfolio is more than just numbers. Crazy things have happened in the financial markets of the past, and only some of this is represented in the data. Understand the underlying mechanisms driving your portfolio's performance and base your portfolio on those mechanisms rather than just on the annualized performance and standard deviation in backtest results. ~West
"Stand Out of My Sunlight"
America just turned 249 years old.
Whether we can keep calling ourselves a free country for another 249 is an open question.
But to answer it — or even ask it well — we have to look backward.
Not just at the events, but at the ideas that lit the fuse.
Because what happened in 1776 wasn’t just the formation of a new government.
It was the instantiation of a radical idea — one that didn’t just disrupt the geopolitical order, but dared to challenge an ancient assumptions about power, obedience, and the nature of the individual.
The Founders weren’t simply rejecting British rule.
They were rejecting the entire premise that some people are born to rule others.
It’s easy to miss how radical that was — especially in a world where we’ve grown numb to the phrase “all men are created equal.”
But at the time, that idea was completely untethered from observable reality.
As Yuval Harrari articulates in Sapiens, for most of human history, kings were believed to be chosen by God, nobility was thought to flow through superior bloodlines, and slavery was not seen as a moral issue — it was just the way things worked.
The notion that all individuals have equal moral worth, regardless of birth or station, was absurd.
When Jefferson wrote those words, he wasn’t describing the world as it was. He was describing the world as it ought to be.
And that distinction — between what is and what ought — is where things get dangerous.
Because the moment you assert that someone has "natural rights" simply by being human, you are also asserting that no king, no parliament, no institution — no matter how old or revered — has the moral authority to violate them.
You’re saying that legitimacy doesn’t flow downward from thrones, but upward from consent.
That’s a moral revolution.
And, of course, these ideas weren't born from a vacuum.
Jefferson was drawing heavily from John Locke, whose formulation — "life, liberty, and property" — laid the intellectual groundwork for classical liberalism (laissez-faire individualism).
Locke argued that our rights do not come from constitutions or kings or congresses.
They come from our nature — from the fact that we are rational beings, capable of agency and choice.
Jefferson’s version swapped out “property” for the more poetic “pursuit of happiness,” but the core idea remained:
You are not a thing to be managed or commanded.
You are not property.
You own yourself.
That single idea — that you own yourself — is more than just a political theory.
It’s a lens through which we can evaluate everything.
What you’re allowed to say.
What you’re allowed to keep.
Where you’re allowed to go.
What obligations can be imposed on you by force.
And perhaps more importantly, who gets to decide.
Locke argued that when a government violates its citizens’ rights — when it begins to rule without consent — it breaks the social contract.
And when that contract is broken, not only do the people have a right to resist, they have a duty to withdraw their consent.
This is where the real moral weight of the Declaration lands.
It’s not just an appeal to self-governance, it’s an indictment of any system that presumes ownership over the individual.
Of course, the contradiction is obvious.
Jefferson owned slaves.
Locke invested in colonial projects.
Neither lived up to the standard they helped articulate.
But if the truth of an idea depends on the virtue of the man who says it, then no philosophy would survive.
These certainly weren’t perfect men by today's standards.
But their ideas were so powerful... they would go on to hold their authors accountable.
Now, I know you don't fall prey to the sophomoric inclination to invalidate the contributions of the great men in the Western tradition.
That would be like rejecting the scientific method because early scientists believed in phlogiston, miasma, or ether theory.
That would be silly (and goosey).
If the principle is sound, the origin is secondary.
The entire point of reason is that it allows us to correct the errors of those who came before.
The Enlightenment wasn’t the final answer. It was the beginning of the conversation.
There’s a phrase echoed in radical leftist circles:
“The master’s tools will never dismantle the master’s house.”
Well, my argument is this:
The Enlightenment gave us tools — natural rights, individual liberty, equality before the law — which have done more to dismantle hierarchies and power structures than any utopian fantasy ever has.
Because they strike at the very root of power.
And if we walk away from them, we'll only end up with a different flavor of tyranny.
On a lighter note, I can’t think about the Revolutionary era without thinking about the most absurdly American moment in our origin story:
Yankee Doodle.
Most people don’t realize it was originally an insult.
British soldiers wrote it to mock the colonists — calling them unrefined, simple, and foolish.
(And if we're being honest, the colonists were the rednecks of their day.)
“Doodle” meant idiot.
And the line “stuck a feather in his cap and called it macaroni” sounds goofy, until you realize what “macaroni” actually meant.
It wasn’t about pasta. It was about fashion.
In elite British circles, a “macaroni” was a young man who had returned from a "grand tour" of Europe with a taste for exotic food, expensive clothing, and flamboyant aesthetics.
Silk stockings, powdered wigs, affected accents.
Think 18th-century Eurotrash.
The colonists — with their rough manners and homespun clothes — were obviously not that.
So the implication was: these backwoods rebels think a single feather makes them fashionable.
How quaint. *lifts pinky finger*
But here’s the beautiful part.
The Americans took the insult — and made it their anthem.
They sang Yankee Doodle while marching.
And when the British finally surrendered at Yorktown, the Continental Army played it proudly as they walked out.
That’s a defining cultural moment.
And our little colonial rebellion didn’t stay little.
It lit a fire that didn’t go out.
The American Revolution was the first successful anti-colonial uprising of the modern era — and over time, it became a model.
A generation later, France would erupt in revolution.
Then Haiti. Then Latin America.
And while many of Britain’s colonies wouldn’t declare their independence until the 20th century, the idea that a people could govern themselves — without a king, without an empire — started here.
And the longer the idea stuck around, the less violent the struggle became. That’s the thing about liberty — it’s contagious.
Once people see that freedom is possible, it becomes harder and harder to argue that domination is inevitable.
The empire didn’t collapse all at once. But it wobbled. And it never quite recovered.
Still, I get it — all of this can feel abstract.
The Founding Fathers are long dead. The monarchy is ceremonial. Most of us aren’t facing down empires.
So what does “independence” mean today?
It might mean something smaller — but no less significant. Because you don’t need a king to be ruled.
Some people are ruled by fear.
Some are ruled by debt.
Others are ruled by shame, or social pressure, or their own excuses.
They do what they’re told, not by a monarch, but by an invisible script — one they didn’t write, but keep following anyway.
Which brings me to Diogenes.
A Greek philosopher. An original.
Lived in a barrel, rejected wealth, rejected decorum, rejected hierarchy...
Was known for publicly masturbating.
But let's ignore that for a moment and focus on the fact that he lived with more freedom than kings.
And one day, Alexander the Great came to meet him.
The most powerful man in the known world walks up and says, “I am Alexander the Great.”
Diogenes doesn’t stand. Doesn’t bow. Doesn’t even blink.
He says, “I am Diogenes the Cynic.”
Alexander, amused, asks: “Is there anything I can do for you?”
Diogenes responds: “Yes. Stand out of my sunlight.”
That’s radical liberty.
No rebellion. No army. Just a man so utterly in possession of himself that the most powerful man on Earth had nothing to offer him.
We don’t all have to live in barrels.
But we can ask the same question:
Where have I surrendered parts of myself without realizing it?
Where have I given up autonomy — not because someone forced me, but because I stopped paying attention?
Freedom isn’t a one-time event.
It’s not just something governments give you.
It’s something individuals claim — one decision at a time.
Not once, but over and over.
So that's my call to make sure you haven't handed over parts of your freedom without even realizing it.
And to declare your independence.
Because the world doesn’t need more permission.
It needs more people who are ready to say:
“I will not be ruled. I own myself. Now would you kindly... stand out of my sunlight.” ~Zack
What did you think of today's newsletter? |
That’s it for this week.
If West’s right, the rich may be the only thing holding the scaffolding together. If I’m right, most people are still waiting for permission to walk out of their cages—doors wide open.
Either way, the signal’s the same:
Don’t wait for the collapse. Don’t beg the empire to be nicer.
Own yourself. Defend your mind. Build a life no one can confiscate.
And if someone tries to stand in your sunlight?
You know what to say.
Sic semper debitoribus
~ West & Zack
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