Hola Libertinus,

Sunday, January 18, 532 AD.

Constantinople.

Six days of riots. Half the city burning. Thirty thousand people in the streets, screaming for blood. A rival emperor sitting on Justinian's throne in the Hippodrome, accepting coronation rites while the mob chanted his name.

Inside the Great Palace, the Emperor of Rome was proverbially “packing his bags.”

Ships waited in the harbor. The consensus among generals and advisors was unanimous:

Flee.

Get across the water, regroup, maybe return with overwhelming force later. It was the smart play. Live to fight another day.

Emperor Justinian agreed.

He was about to abandon his capital over a tax revolt and some pissed-off chariot racing fans.

Then his wife opened her mouth… and changed history.

Pause.

We’ll get back to that in a minute. Promise.

First, here’s West’s finds for the week…

📡 S I G N A L S

One Person, One Vote For Higher Debt
I recently listened to an audiobook that discussed the perspectives of Lee Kuan Yew, founder of Singapore, on geopolitics, economics, and nation building. It was a fascinating listen and I strongly recommend. Yew was a pragmatist, and rather than falling back on any particular political ideology, was always looking for solutions to specific problems he thought his country could face. His ideas, while often at odds with Western conceptions of liberalism, provide a very different way of looking at the world. One item in particular he advocated against was the notion of “one person, one vote” policies. Yew was of the opinion that one person-one vote systems require politicians to promise increasing social benefits to the citizenry in order to get elected, leading to increasing debt burdens and no plans to get out of debt.

Anecdotally, in the US at least, this theory seems to pan out. His recommendation was to increase the voting weight of individuals between the ages of 40-60 that also had children. The idea is that people in this demographic are concerned for the future prosperity of their children and won't be as tempted to vote for broad ranging social benefits as those who are currently trying to accumulate wealth or those who are currently receiving government pensions. I've personally long thought that democracy inevitably leads to socialism, especially in societies that lack a strong middle class, as there is a tendency to vote for more free stuff. It is interesting to see actionable remedies to this situation from the perspective of an actual political practitioner.

Gold as Percentage of Total World Market Cap
The gold bull run this year has been impressive to say the least. There are a lot of ways to slice the data to put the recent performance of gold into context, but one interesting data point is that gold represents just 5% of the total market cap of global financial assets now, but in 1980 was as high as 21%. I don't have a crystal ball, but this is one piece of evidence to suggest that despite the recent price influx, gold may still have higher potential.

Diwali-driven Indian Gold Frenzy
Despite record high gold prices, India has doubled its imports of the precious metal. I'm personally of the opinion that gold prices are primarily being driven by central banks cycling out of the USD and into gold as political risks increase, but this just goes to show that gold demand is multi-faceted and difficult to put into a clear narrative. For those unaware, Diwali is a religious festival celebrated primarily in India, and buying gold is a traditional element of Diwali celebrations.

Inequality in Adherence to Data
Joeri at Money & Macro recently did a great piece on Gary Stevenson. What I appreciate the most about Joeri is his even-handedness and reliance upon data, rather than emotion. We've discussed Gary Stevenson previously, and I'm personally of the belief that Gary has decided to trade in the difficult life of a trader for the much easier vocation of social advocacy. His trajectory is reminiscent of Chomsky's transition from high-level linguistics to plushy public intellectualism. Tl;dr: even if you think economic inequality is an issue to be solved, Gary's use of empirical data (or lack thereof) doesn't do his cause any favors.

Are Right Wing Terrorists Lurking Behind Every Corner?
Recent events involving political violence in the US have led the "but where's your source for that?" crowd to highlight studies claiming that political violence is predominantly perpetrated by individuals with right-wing extremist proclivities. Amber Duke, one of the co-hosts of Reason's 'Free Media' segment, decided to look into these "studies" and see if they give an unbiased telling of the data.

Spoiler alert: they don't.

I.

Okay, you've waited long enough, back to Constantinople...

January 18, 532. Justinian's ready to flee. Six days of riots. Half the city burned. A rival emperor being crowned in the Hippodrome while 30,000 people chant "Nika!" (Greek for “Conquer!”) The ships are waiting. His advisors say run.

Every structural force… economic crisis, united popular opposition, elite conspiracy, military stalemate… pointed to his fall.

Smart money was on the boats.

But his wife had other ideas.

“Royal Purple Is the Noblest Shroud”

So, Theodora.

Former actress, exotic dancer, courtesan.

The historian Procopius wrote about her early career in graphic detail…

Picture a striptease act where she would lie naked on stage while geese pecked grains of barley off her body.

She also allegedly made some extremely ribald remarks regarding how many men she could simultaneously satisfy (but note Procopius hated Justinian and Theodora, so these details should be treated with skepticism).

Regardless, historians agree that she came from the absolute bottom of society.

The kind of woman respectable Byzantines publicly shunned (and privately patronized).

Then she caught Justinian's eye.

Problem: Byzantine law prohibited senators from marrying actresses.

His solution? Easy. Change the law. He rewrote the rules so he could marry her.

It’s good to be Emperor.

Fast forward to January 532, and she's standing in a room where she could be executed just for speaking. No army. No gold. No legal right to be there.

But she broke protocol.

And what she said next saved an empire.

"My lords, the present occasion is too serious to allow me to follow the convention that a woman should not speak in a man's council."

She continued:

"In my opinion, flight is not the right course, even if it should bring us to safety. It is impossible for a person, having been born into this world, not to die; but for one who has reigned it is intolerable to be a fugitive. May I never be deprived of this purple robe, and may I never see the day when those who meet me do not call me empress."

Then the line that changed history:

"If you wish to save yourself, my lord, there is no difficulty. We are rich; over there is the sea, and yonder are the ships. Yet reflect for a moment whether, when you have once escaped to a place of security, you would not gladly exchange such safety for death. As for me, I agree with the adage that the royal purple is the noblest shroud."

Translation:

Better to die wearing the imperial purple than live in exile.

And in doing so, she shamed her husband into finding his spine.

Justinian stayed.

II.

While Theodora's giving this speech, the mob is literally crowning a new emperor in the Hippodrome. Some senator named Hypatius (nephew of a former emperor) was getting the full coronation treatment.

So Justinian, Theodora, General Belisarius, and an elderly eunuch named Narses cook up a plan.

Get ready for some Game of Thrones sh*t.

Psychological warfare plus good old-fashioned ultraviolence.

First, some context: Constantinople had two chariot racing teams: the Blues and Greens.

Think English football hooligans meets organized crime meets political parties. For centuries, they'd been bitter enemies, killing each other in the streets.

Blues tended to be wealthier, backed by Justinian. Greens were working class.

But something unprecedented had just happened: the factions united against Justinian.

Blues and Greens, standing together for the first time in living memory.

Over taxes.

Justinian appointed John the Cappadocian as Praetorian Prefect, and John promptly introduced twenty-six new taxes.

The outrage was universal. Turns out hating taxes is the one issue that transcends class warfare and unites enemies.

The plan to crush this rebellion was simple: split the chariot racing factions again.

Narses (the eunuch) walks into the Hippodrome alone. Unarmed. Carrying a bag of gold. He finds the Blue faction leaders and reminds them:

Justinian has always been your patron. The Greens are still your enemies. He hands out bribes.

In the middle of Hypatius' coronation ceremony, the Blues suddenly stand up and walk out, abandoning the Greens.

Then comes the trap.

General Belisarius and his troops seal every exit of the Hippodrome.

The remaining crowd… Greens, Blues who stayed, thousands of ordinary spectators… are all trapped inside.

What followed was systematic slaughter.

More than 30,000 killed in a single afternoon.

No trials. No distinctions. Roughly ten percent of Constantinople's entire population, massacred.

The rival emperor Hypatius was executed the next day. His body thrown into the sea.

The circus factions were permanently broken.

Chariot racing… once the political heartbeat of Constantinople… would never wield that power again.

But here's the paradox:

The massacre ushered in the Byzantine golden age.

With all opposition eliminated, Justinian was freer than ever to pursue his grand vision.

By February 23, just over a month after the riots, Justinian commissioned architects to build the new Hagia Sophia, which would remain the world's largest church for nearly a thousand years.

Belisarius conquered North Africa.

The Corpus Juris Civilis (the foundation of Western law) was completed.

The empire reached its greatest extent.

III.

So what changed history?

Economic forces?

Internal coalitions fracturing?

Overtaxation creating unsustainable pressure?

Or… was it one former prostitute refusing to let her husband flee?

All the structural forces were aligned for collapse.

Every model of historical cycles would predict regime change.

But Theodora's courage infected Justinian. Justinian's resolve enabled Belisarius. Belisarius' brutality ended the riots. The riots' end secured the regime. The regime's security enabled the golden age.

Thirty thousand dead. Fifteen hundred years of law. The greatest church in Christendom.

All because one woman chose dignity over survival when her husband's nerve failed.

Look, you can talk about historical cycles. Debt cycles. Astrological cycles. Fourth turnings. Kondratiev waves.

Whatever framework helps you make sense of the chaos.

But here's the thing:

History isn't written by cycles. It's written by people.

It’s easy to think we're just passengers on some predetermined ride.

Economic forces, demographic trends, class warfare… all these massive deterministic forces grinding away with mechanical inevitability.

It's comforting to think that way, in a way. If history is predetermined, we're not responsible; what can we do?

Theodora reminds us that's bullsh*t.

Individual courage… or cowardice… at pivotal moments determines outcomes.

Not always. But when it counts.

And you never know when you're living through a pivotal moment until it's already passed.

Royal purple is the noblest shroud.

That line is about all of us, living through this moment.

What principles are you willing to lose everything to defend?

When do you stand versus retreat?

How do you know the difference?

Theodora chose her hill. Most people never do.

They wait for someone else to act first. They follow consensus. They take the boats.

Maybe that's rational.

Saving your skin seems like a smart play. But sometimes the smart play is wrong.

Sometimes courage… irrational, reckless courage… is the only option that works.

And sometimes it falls to a former prostitute to teach an emperor how to be brave.

~Zack

That’s it for this week.

We'll be going on a bit of a hiatus for the next few weeks and we wanted to let you know so you aren't stuck in a loop of email refreshing eagerly anticipating the next installment of the newsletter.

This hiatus is being driven by two factors: 1.) we have some big things in the works that we think you'll like. 2.) West will be gallivanting across France taking in fine Burgundy wine and contemplating the rise and fall of empires at Roman ruins, culminating in a Chateau wedding for a friend he met in an Argentine opera house several years ago.

He'll surely have some stories to pass along in November!

Sic semper debitoribus,
~ West & Zack

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